Wednesday, May 27, 2015
OVERALL TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 27/05/2015 WEDNESDAY
• Short term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.0940
• Medium term: Up, as long as the price is above 1.0454.
• Long term: Up, as long as the price is above 1.0454.
• Medium term: Up, as long as the price is above 1.0454.
• Long term: Up, as long as the price is above 1.0454.
RESISTANCE TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 27/05/15 WEDNESDAY
• 1.0940: yesterday's American session high.
• 1.0995: micro term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, calculated for the drop from Friday’s high 1.1208 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1036: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement, calculated for the drop from Friday’s high 1.1208 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1076: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, calculated for the drop from Friday’s high 1.1208 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1109: micro term 71.4% retracement, calculated for the drop from Friday’s high 1.1208 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1094: short term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, calculated for the drop from May 15th 3-month high 1.1467 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1165: short term Fibonacci 50% retracement, calculated for the drop from May 15th 3-month high 1.1467 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1236: short term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, calculated for the drop from May 15th 3-month high 1.1467 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1194 short term 71.4% retracement, calculated for the drop from May 15th 3-month high 1.1467 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1381: short term 85.7% retracement, calculated for the drop from May 15th 3-month high 1.1467 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.0995: micro term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, calculated for the drop from Friday’s high 1.1208 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1036: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement, calculated for the drop from Friday’s high 1.1208 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1076: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, calculated for the drop from Friday’s high 1.1208 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1109: micro term 71.4% retracement, calculated for the drop from Friday’s high 1.1208 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1094: short term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, calculated for the drop from May 15th 3-month high 1.1467 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1165: short term Fibonacci 50% retracement, calculated for the drop from May 15th 3-month high 1.1467 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1236: short term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, calculated for the drop from May 15th 3-month high 1.1467 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1194 short term 71.4% retracement, calculated for the drop from May 15th 3-month high 1.1467 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1381: short term 85.7% retracement, calculated for the drop from May 15th 3-month high 1.1467 to yesterday's 1.0863.
• 1.1450: an important resistance, which has several daily extremes around it, among them Jan 15th low, Feb 12th, 16th & 18th daily highs. Thursday's high was only 5 pips below this level, while Friday's 3-month high was 17 pips above this level.
• 1.1501: medium term 42.9% retracement level, calculated for the drop Oct 15th 2014 top 1.2887 to Mar 13th 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462 (@ 1.1388). Wednesday's high is inside this area @ 1.1382.
• 1.1534: Feb 2nd daily high, which is the highest price seen in the past 3 months.
• 1.1615: Jan 19th daily high.
• 1.1639: Jan 18th daily high.
• 1.1675: medium term Fibonacci 50% retracement level, calculated for the drop Oct 15th 2014 top 1.2887 to Mar 13th 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462 (@ 1.1388). Wednesday's high is inside this area @ 1.1382.
• 1.1501: medium term 42.9% retracement level, calculated for the drop Oct 15th 2014 top 1.2887 to Mar 13th 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462 (@ 1.1388). Wednesday's high is inside this area @ 1.1382.
• 1.1534: Feb 2nd daily high, which is the highest price seen in the past 3 months.
• 1.1615: Jan 19th daily high.
• 1.1639: Jan 18th daily high.
• 1.1675: medium term Fibonacci 50% retracement level, calculated for the drop Oct 15th 2014 top 1.2887 to Mar 13th 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462 (@ 1.1388). Wednesday's high is inside this area @ 1.1382.
SUPPORT TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 27/05/2015
• 1.0882: short term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, calculated for the rising move from Apr 13th bottom 1.0520 to May 15th 3-month high 1.1467.
• 1.0863: yesterday's 4-week low.
• 1.0836: short term Dow 66.7% retracement level, calculated for the rising move from Apr 13th bottom 1.0520 to May 15th 3-month high 1.1467.
• 1.0791: short term 71.4% retracement level, calculated for the rising move from Apr 13th bottom 1.0520 to May 15th 3-month high 1.1467.
• 1.0750: Apr 1st daily low.
• 1.0707: Apr 13th daily high.
• 1.0655: short term 85.7% retracement level, calculated for the rising move from Apr 13th bottom 1.0520 to May 15th 3-month high 1.1467.
• 1.0836: short term Dow 66.7% retracement level, calculated for the rising move from Apr 13th bottom 1.0520 to May 15th 3-month high 1.1467.
• 1.0791: short term 71.4% retracement level, calculated for the rising move from Apr 13th bottom 1.0520 to May 15th 3-month high 1.1467.
• 1.0750: Apr 1st daily low.
• 1.0707: Apr 13th daily high.
• 1.0655: short term 85.7% retracement level, calculated for the rising move from Apr 13th bottom 1.0520 to May 15th 3-month high 1.1467.
EURUSD (FIBER) LATEST ANALYSIS 27/05/2015 WEDNESDAY
Thanks to Roslin Taha invited me into this group to share my opinion on FX analysis. The Euro has reached a fresh 4-week low at 1.0863 yesterday. This means that we have met yet another important correction target: the 61.8% retracement level at 1.0882. The stop at this level is still reasonably close (less than 20 pips), but it is not a very accurate stop (which to me is a difference of up to 10 pips). However, after trying more than once to break below 1the 1.0860s, the bears gave up, and the price started recovering, to reach a current daily high of 1.0929.
If this recovery continues, stopping not very far from a key Fibonacci level may be the reason why the bulls are controlling the market today, and could lead to a sizable move higher. This is why 1.0882 will be our first support for today. However, as it is always the case, stopping at a retracement level is not enough of a reason to trust a trend change, we still need to see this new supposed trend prove strength against an important level. This level may be the resistance at 1.0940. During preparing this analysis the small bullish "Harami Cross" shown in daily chart for reversal trends.
If we break above 1.0940, the price will be expected to move higher, targeting micro term retracement levels which start at 1.0995, followed more important levels at 1.1036, 1.1076 & 1.1109. A top very close to any of these levels will not be good for the bullish scenario that I highly favor, while breaking above each of these levels will boost the confidence in what the bulls can do. A break above 1.1109 in specific will be fantastic for the short term bulls, as it will open the way higher towards at least one of the short term retracement levels (and probably more). These levels are 1.1094, 1.1165, 1.1236 & 1.11294. A break above 1.1294 in specific will be the thing needed in order to free the Euro from the short term & may be even the medium term pressure, and allow it to start appreciating in a way that will surprise many people!
As for the support, all of our attention must be at the Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.0882. This very important level could offer strong support, and kickoff another bullish adventure. The close stop at this level seen yesterday should’ve provided a good chance to get in and ride the bullish train. But if this level gives way, we may drop towards the important level at 1.0791. This is the last of the key retracements, and should be treated the same way we treat 1.0882, because it is capable of turning things around. But if this level also gives way, then the reasons to expect the Euro to rise will become much less convincing. In this case, the euro will be expected to continue moving lower, targeting 1.0791, 1.0750, 1.0707, and the important 1.0655, ahead of last month’s bottom 1.0520. Happy trading guys.
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