BUYING AND SELLING INDICATIONS IN EURUSD (FIBER) 31/03/15

Sell 1.0803
Stop 1.0885
Target / Limit 1.0627

Buy 1.0627
Stop 1.0535
Target / Limit 1.0827

OVERALL TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 31/03/15

• Short term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.0881.
• Medium term: Up, as long as the price is above 1.0627.
• Long term: Up, as long as the price is above 1.0454.

RESISTANCE TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 31/03/15

• 1.0810: The falling trend line from Mar 26th high.
• 1.0846: micro term 28.6% retracement for the drop from Thursday's 22-day high 1.1052 to today's current daily low at the time of preparing this report 1.0764.
• 1.0874: micro term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement for the drop from Thursday's 22-day high 1.1052 to today's current daily low at the time of preparing this report 1.0764.
• 1.0908: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement for the drop from Thursday's 22-day high 1.1052 to today's current daily low at the time of preparing this report 1.0764.
• 1.0942: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement for the drop from Thursday's 22-day high 1.1052 to today's current daily low at the time of preparing this report 1.0764.
• 1.0970: micro term 71.4% retracement for the drop from Thursday's 22-day high 1.1052 to today's current daily low at the time of preparing this report 1.0764.
• 1.1011: micro term 85.7% retracement for the drop from Thursday's 22-day high 1.1052 to today’s current low 1.0801.
• 1.1040: Mar 18th 2-week FED-high.
• 1.1075: short term 57.1% retracement level, calculated fro the drop from Feb 3rd top 1.1534 to Mar 13th 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462.
• 1.1124: short term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, calculated fro the drop from Feb 3rd top 1.1534 to Mar 13th 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462.
• 1.1177: short term 71.4% retracement level, calculated fro the drop from Feb 3rd top 1.1534 to Mar 13th 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462.
• 1.1228: short term 85.7% retracement level, calculated fro the drop from Feb 3rd top 1.1534 to Mar 13th 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462.
• 1.1279: Feb 20th daily low.
• 1.1319: Feb 16th daily low.
• 1.1381: short term 57.1% retracement level, calculated fro the drop from Feb 3rd top 1.1534 to Mar 13th 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462.

SUPPORT TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 31/03/15

• 1.0764: today's current daily low at the time of preparing this analysis.
• 1.0738: the micro term 71.4% retracement, calculated for the rising move from Mar 19th low 1.0613 to Thursday's 22-day high 1.1052.
• 1.0676: the micro term 85.7% retracement, calculated for the rising move from Mar 19th low 1.0613 to Thursday's 22-day high 1.1052.
• 1.0627: an important support which combines the rising trend line from Mar 13th 12-year low, with 71.4% retracement, calculated for the rising move from Mar 13th 12-year low itself 1.0462 to Wednesday’s FED-high 2-week high 1.1040. PS: 1.1040 is still the orthodox top of wave (1) in spite of reaching a higher high at 1.1052 yesterday, since this high is a part of wave (2).
• 1.0613: Mar 19th low.
• 1.0580: Mar 18th low.
• 1.0627: 85.7% retracement, calculated for the rising move from Mar 13th 12-year low itself 1.0462 to Wednesday’s FED-high 2-week high 1.1040.
• 1.0494: Mar 12th low.
• 1.0462: March 13th 12-year low.
• 1.0454: the cyclical 71.4% retracement level, calculated for the enormous move from October 2000 all-time low 0.8220 to July 2008 all-time high 1.6038.
• 1.0419: a weekly close from Dec 2002.
• 1.0359: a weekly low from Jan 2003.
• 1.0333: a weekly high & a weekly low from Dec 2002 (the same down to the pip).

COME BACK FOR EURUSD (FIBER) 31/03/15

Good Evening from down under -- Even I'm away from telegram chats but I always following you guys, in my current analysis the potential flat correction is moving lower right now. The Euro retreated as expected, and reached 1.0764 as this analysis writing is being prepared, well below Friday’s low 1.0801, and therefore we should keep an open mind towards the possibility we have been talking about for a few weeks now, which is that we are currently within a flat correction pattern that could probably target Mar 19th low 1.0613, which is the bottom of wave A of the flat correction (that is of course if we are correct about it being a flat in the first place). Another very important level in the same area is 1.0627, which combines my fibo count on 71.4% retracement for wave 1, with the rising trend line from March 13th 12-year low. So it may be reasonable to say that 1.0613/1.0627 is a reasonable target area now.

This short term bearish bias is supported by 2 bearish breaks: the break below the bottom of the hourly channel which can be drawn from March 19th low (the line channel on the attached chart), and the rising trend line from March 16th low. These breaks suggest that we could target the 3rd support, provided by the rising trend line from Mar 13th 12-year low, which is currently running extremely close to my fibo calculation on 71.4% retracement at 1.0627. The reasons to believe that there is a good chance of reaching, or at least approaching this target are strong reasons.

As you guys can see the attached fuiles, the drop has penetrated below the micro term Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.0781, and it moving towards the micro term my fibo calculations at 71.4% retracement at 1.0738. This is now a first support. If we are right about our “flat” theory, this level must be broken. However, it is followed by more important support levels at 1.0676 & 1.0627. It is still highly probable that one of these levels will be the hero for the bulls, and will force the price to start rising again, but what changed now is that 1.0627 has gained a lot of votes, making it our favorite downside target, ahead of these 3 levels which while they still important, have lost the pole position to 1.0627, which looks like it’s on its way to be this “hero”.

In case we break below 1.0627, that would be a surprise, and would warn that we are not right about waiting for the Euro to explode from current levels. In this case, the price will be expected to target March 19th low 1.0613, ahead of more important lower levels, especially 1.0545.

After the weakness seen since Thursday, resistance can be found at 1.0810 first, ahead of the first micro term level at 1.0846, and the first Fibonacci retracement at 1.0874, the ideal correction target at 1.0908. If we surpass the ideal target, the bulls will be expected to target 1.0942 & 1.0970. A break above this last level would be harmful for the short term bearish outlook, and would indicated that the falling correction from 1.1052 is probably over, which takes the logic out of the flat scenario, and the reasoning out of waiting for 1.0627. Happy hunting..

BUYING AND SELLING INDICATIONS IN XAUUSD (GOLD) 18/03/15

Buy 1148.0
Stop 1139.8
Target / Limit 1198.0

Sell 1139.8
Stop 1148.0
Target / Limit 1089.8

OVERALL TRENDLINE IN XAUUSD (GOLD) 18/03/15

• Short term: Down, as long as we are below 1152.9/1153.0.
• Medium term: Down, as long as we are below 1191.8.
• Long term: Down, as long as we are below 1618.7.

RESISTANCE TRENDLINE IN XAUUSD (GOLD) 18/03/15

• 1152.9/1153.0: the Asian & American session lows, which are one pip apart from each other.
• 1159.8: yesterday’s American session’s high.
• 1163.9/1164.1: a small resistance area build by Mar 6th low & Mar 16th high.
• 1166.5: Mar 12th daily high, which is also very close to the falling trend line from Mar 2nd daily high.
• 1173.5: short term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, calculated for the falling move from Mar 2nd top 1223.3 to yesterday’s 4-month low 1142.7.
• 1177.2: short term 42.9% retracement, calculated for the falling move from Mar 2nd top 1223.3 to yesterday’s 4-month low 1142.7.
• 1183.0: short term Fibonacci 50% retracement, calculated for the falling move from Mar 2nd top 1223.3 to yesterday’s 4-month low 1142.7.
• 1188.8: short term 57.1% retracement, calculated for the falling move from Mar 2nd top 1223.3 to yesterday’s 4-month low 1142.7.
• 1192.5: short term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, calculated for the falling move from Mar 2nd top 1223.3 to yesterday’s 4-month low 1142.7.
• 1200.3: short term 71.4% retracement, calculated for the falling move from Mar 2nd top 1223.3 to yesterday’s 4-month low 1142.7.

SUPPORT TRENDLINE IN XAUUSD (GOLD) 18/03/15

• 1142.7: yesterday's trend low, which is now very close to the bottom of the daily channel we have been watching recently (which can be seen on the attached chart).
• 1140.5: Nov 5th daily close.
• 1137.7: Nov 4th daily low.
• 1130.0: Nov 6th 4-year low.
• 1123.1: a weekly low from Apr 2010.
• 1113.8: a weekly low from Dec 2009.
• 1109.1: a weekly low from Dec 2009.

XAUUSD (GOLD) LATEST SCENARIO 18/03/15

Attention my dear friends here, breaking below 1146.1 yesterday was not good for the bulls, and we shift our attention today towards the actual bottom of the daily channel ,which is currently running extremely close to yesterday’s low 1142.7. This is now a key support that must hold if we are going to recover, a break below this level is expected to be very harmful for the bulls, as price could crash and could very much approach, if not break below the $1,200 landmark! So careful..

There are no important support levels ahead of 1142.7. A clean & clear break below this level would put pressure on the price of gold, and would target 1140.5 & 1137.7 first, but I doubt such an important break would settle for such limited gains. More interesting targets include 1130.0 & 1123.1.

On the resistance side, the Asian & European sessions highs are one pip apart, and they make the first resistance at 1152.9/1153.0. Although it makes sense to consider buying gold at current levels, since we have touched the bottom of a daily channel yesterday, it is only with a break above 1152.9/1153.0 that gold could be on the way higher. First target for this break, in case it actually happens, is 1163.9/1164.1, ahead of the short term retracement levels, which do not start until 1173.5, and include 1183.0 as an ideal target, ahead of 2 important levels at 1192.5 & 1200.3.

BUYING AND SELLING INDICATIONS IN GBPUSD (CABLE) 18/03/15

Buy 1.4677
Stop 1.4602
Target / Limit 1.4877

Sell 1.4602
Stop 1.4677
Target / Limit 1.4402

OVERALL TRENDLINE IN GBPUSD (CABLE) 18/03/15

• Short term: Down, as long as we are below 1.4779.
• Medium term: Down, as long as we are below 1.5297.
• Long term: Down, as long as we are below 1.7191.

RESISTANCE TRENDLINE IN GBPUSD (CABLE) 18/03/15

• 1.4732: micro term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level for the drop from Monday’s high 1.4853 to today’s 5-year low 1.4658.
• 1.4756: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement level for the drop from Monday’s high 1.4853 to today’s 5-year low 1.4658.
• 1.4779: an important resistance level that combines the falling trend line from March 11th top, with the micro term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level for the drop from Monday’s high 1.4853 to today’s 5-year low 1.4658.
• 1.4797: micro term 85.7% retracement level for the drop from Monday’s high 1.4853 to today’s 5-year low 1.4658.
• 1.4853: Monday’s high.
• 1.4893: March 13th daily high, which is also very close to the falling trend line from Feb 26th high.
• 1.4953: medium term Dow 33.3% calculated for the falling move from Feb 26th daily high & Fibonacci top 1.5552 to today’s 5-year low 1.4658.
• 1.5000: medium term Fibonacci 38.2% calculated for the falling move from Feb 26th daily high & Fibonacci top 1.5552 to today’s 5-year low 1.4658.

SUPPORT TRENDLINE IN GBPUSD (CABLE) 18/03/15

• 1.4658: today's 5-year low.
• 1.4686: a weekly low from June 2010.
• 1.4611: a weekly high from May 2010.
• 1.4569: a weekly low from June 2010.
• 1.4514: a weekly low from May 2009.

GBPUSD (CABLE) LATEST SCENARIO 18/03/15

My dear friends, I had to re-write this whole analysis again after the UK data came out, since the Cable has dropped sharply, reaching a new 5-year low at 1.4658. This was not a surprise, since the price has been stopping recently at retracement resistance levels then diving again.

After this new low, 1.4779 has turned into a key resistance level. However, it is obvious that we are a bit far from that level, and that we need closer resistance levels to help us estimate the chances of a recovery. First resistance is at 1.4701, followed by 1.4714, 1.4727, 1.4779 & 1.4797. These levels can give us clues on whether a recovery from today's 5-year low is probable or not. As we approach each of them, we need to watch the price for signs that it will break above them or top very close to them & then dive again. The most important of these levels in my opinion is definitely 1.4779, because it combines a Fibonacci level with the falling trend line from March 11th daily high. A break above this level would be a huge boost for the bulls, while to continue trading below this level confirms the continuation of the downtrend. The first target for breaking 1.4779 is 1.4797, which is too close to be considered a target for a break of such importance, but more realistic targets come in at 1.4853, 1.4893, 1.4953 & 1.5000.

On the support side, today’s 5-year low at 1.4658 comes first, ahead of 1.4611, 1.4569 & 1.4514. These levels are all weekly extremes (highs or lows) which have been seen years ago, and they do not hold more technical significance than that. Looking for technically important levels on the weekly chart has showed that we have 2 potential targets for this weakness, and they are 1.4346 & 1.3809 which, as explained in previous reports, have much more technical value than the levels preceding them

BUYING AND SELLING INDICATIONS IN EURUSD (FIBER) 18/03/15

1st Option

Buy 1.0559
Stop 1.0470
Target / Limit 1.0759

2nd Option

Buy 1.0623
Stop 1.0545
Target / Limit 1.0823

Sell 1.0470
Stop 1.0537
Target / Limit 1.0270

OVERALL TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 18/03/15

• Short term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.0640/46.
• Medium term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.1124.
• Long term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.2985.

RESISTANCE TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 18/03/15

• 1.0640/46: a horizontal resistance area, built by a few hourly tops seen recently.
• 1.0678: short term 28.6% retracement calculated for the falling move from Mar 3rd daily high 1.1217 to Friday’s 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462.
• 1.0713: short term Dow 33.3% retracement calculated for the falling move from Mar 3rd daily high 1.1217 to Friday’s 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462.
• 1.0750: short term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement calculated for the falling move from Mar 3rd daily high 1.1217 to Friday’s 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462.
• 1.0786: short term 42.9% retracement calculated for the falling move from Mar 3rd daily high 1.1217 to Friday’s 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462.
• 1.0840: short term Fibonacci 50% retracement calculated for the falling move from Mar 3rd daily high 1.1217 to Friday’s 12-year low & probable bottom 1.0462.

SUPPORT TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 18/03/15

• 1.0579 micro term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, calculated for the rising move from Friday’s 1.0462 to Tuesday's 1.0651. This level is only one single pip below today’s current daily low at the time of preparing this report.
• 1.0557: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement, calculated for the rising move from Friday’s 1.0462 to Tuesday's 1.0651.
• 1.0534: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, calculated for the rising move from Friday’s 1.0462 to Tuesday's 1.0651.
• 1.0516: micro term 71.4% retracement, calculated for the rising move from Friday’s 1.0462 to Tuesday's 1.0651.
• 1.0489: micro term 85.7% retracement, calculated for the rising move from Friday’s 1.0462 to Tuesday's 1.0651.
• 1.0462: Friday’s 12-year low.
• 1.0454: the cyclical 71.4% retracement level, calculated for the enormous move from October 2000 all-time low 0.8220 to July 2008 all-time high 1.6038.
• 1.0419: a weekly close from Dec 2002.
• 1.0359: a weekly low from Jan 2003.
• 1.0333: a weekly high & a weekly low from Dec 2002 (the same down to the pip).

EURUSD (FIBER) LATEST SCENARIO 18/03/15

As I said earlier, more advance from 1.0462 is very good for the “bottoming very close to 1.0454” scenario. This is a long term retracement level, and seeing the price bottoming only 8 pips above it, then jump more than 150 pips is surely very exciting, and very promising for the bulls.

The Euro dipped to a new 12-year low on Friday at 1.0462, which is only 8 pips above my long term prediction 71.4% retracement level expansions theories. Recent analysis I have talked about this level several times, and bottoming only 8 pips above it indicate its very importance. Therefore, this level will be in the center of today’ analysis for our group here.

As said in all of last week’s analysis too, the next long term target is 1.0454. Take a look at attached chart #2, guys,..you will see that the falling trend line connecting October 2008 & June 2010 major bottoms (the red trend line on the attached chart), is currently running very close to 1.0454! I hope we can test this important level in the near future in order to get more clues on the long term direction of the single currency.

Late last week, the price broke above the top of the falling channel from the ECB top, but the reaction was limited, and the price was back to retest this channel (please refer to chart #1). This behavior is a yet another indication of a probable bottom in the area, because retesting the top of a channel which was broken to the upside is bullish. The fact that the retest level included reaching a new bottom does not change that at all. Moreover, after the retest, and as can be seen on the attached chart, the price also broke above the falling trend line from Thursday’s high, which confirmed that there is strength in the Euro. Yesterday’s daily high was very close to an area that includes a few hourly tops, which were seen recently, and that is 1.0640/6. This area, which is illustrated on chart #1 with 2 horizontal lines I did in my sketch, is going to be our first resistance for today. A break above this level, would be another positive sign added to the couple of bullish breaks seen recently, may be an extremely positive one. The targets for breaking 1.040/6 include 1.0678, 1.0713 & 1.0750 or 1.0835 max in near term, among other levels (mentioned in the resistance section of this analysis and all of this actually depend on "Patience" words from Janet Yellen in FOMC later at 1800 GMT).

On the other hand, the drop from yesterday’s high has reached the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at 1.0579 (Current low: 1.0580), and this will be our first support for today. Other retracements that we need to care about are 1.0557, 1.0534, 1.0516 & 1.0489. The advance from Friday’s low could be counted as wave (1) of the recovery, and the drop from yesterday’s high could be counted as wave (2). The one Elliott rule about wave (2) is that it does not retrace more than 100% of wave (1). This means that this drop could reach anywhere between here & 1.0462 without harming the bullish scenario. However, it is a preferred that the drop bottoms very close to one of the key retracements like 1.0557 or 1.0516, but not below that. Breaking 1.0507 would be a reason to worry, and breaking 1.0489 would be a bigger reason to worry, while breaking 1.0454 terminates the possibility that we have seen an important bottom at Friday’s low. We need to keep both our eyes at the price as it approached 1.0454. This level could be the reason why this sharp drop is not stopping, it may be the awaited target & turning point, after 1.1096 failed to be. Testing 1.0454 should provide us with info about the direction of the next big move, and it is simple: a bottom very close to this level is a reason to expect a strong rising move, while a clear & clean break below it is a reason for this trend to go lower & lower. A break below this level will be expected to target 1.0419, 1.0359 ahead of what looks like an important level at 1.0333. Happy Trading Guys.. and my clouds reading cannot trace the FOMC volatility from Yellen words.

BUYING AND SELLING INDICATIONS IN XAUUSD (GOLD) 16/03/15

Buy 1159.2
Stop 1150.5
Target / Limit 1178.6

Sell 1150.5
Stop 1159.2
Target / Limit 1130.0

OVERALL TRENDLINE IN XAUUSD (GOLD) 16/03/15

• Short term: Down, as long as we are below 1262.2.
• Medium term: Down, as long as we are below 1191.8.
• Long term: Down, as long as we are below 1618.7.

RESISTANCE TRENDLINE IN XAUUSD (GOLD) 16/03/15

• 1162.2: the falling trend line from Friday's high.
• 1165.4: micro term 28.6% retracement, calculated for the drop from Mar 5th high 1209.5 to Wednesday's 3-month low 1147.7.
• 1171.3: micro term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, calculated for the drop from Mar 5th high 1209.5 to Wednesday's 3-month low 1147.7.
• 1174.2: micro term 42.9% retracement, calculated for the drop from Mar 5th high 1209.5 to Wednesday's 3-month low 1147.7.
• 1178.6: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement, calculated for the drop from Mar 5th high 1209.5 to Wednesday's 3-month low 1147.7.
• 1183.0: micro term 57.1% retracement, calculated for the drop from Mar 5th high 1209.5 to Wednesday's 3-month low 1147.7.
• 1185.9: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, calculated for the drop from Mar 5th high 1209.5 to Wednesday's 3-month low 1147.7.
• 1191.8: micro term 57.1% retracement, calculated for the drop from Mar 5th high 1209.5 to Wednesday's 3-month low 1147.7.
• 1200.7: micro term 57.1% retracement, calculated for the drop from Mar 5th high 1209.5 to Wednesday's 3-month low 1147.7.
• 1209.5: Mar 5th high.

SUPPORT TRENDLINE IN XAUUSD (GOLD) 16/03/15

• 1154.4: the rising trend line from Friday’s low.
• 1151.4: Friday’s low, which is very close to the rising trend line from Wednesday’s trend low.
• 1146.1/1147.3: a support area built of 4 daily lows seen in November, all within 12 pips. Wednesday’s 3-month low was only 4 pips above the top of this support area. The bottom of this area is now very close to the bottom of the daily channel we have been watching recently (which can be seen on the attached chart).
• 1140.5: Nov 5th daily close.
• 1137.7: Nov 4th daily low.
• 1130.0: Nov 6th 4-year low.
• 1123.1: a weekly low from Apr 2010.

XAUUSD (GOLD) LATEST SCENARIO 16/03/15

For gold traders, its seem not a lot of change on this front. My recent analysis emphasized on the importance of a well-known support/resistance area, which is 1146.1/1147.3 (represented by the red horizontal line on the attached chart). Wednesday’s low which was only 4 pips above the top of this area was an indication of its importance, and therefore, it was not a surprise to see gold recover about 190 pips up from that low, and to see that we have ascending daily low for the past 4 days. Moreover, this area was just below the bottom of the daily channel we have been watching lately, but since this channel is a falling one, its bottom descended to meet this area today, they are almost exactly at the same level now.

So, the bottom of the channel, and the bottom of the support area, meet to give us our first support for today, at 1146.1. If this level breaks, we could very much see gold trading below November bottom 1130.0, in the near future. However, closer levels include 1153.6, 1146.1, 1140.5 & 1137.7.

Resistance starts at the falling trend line from Friday’s high, which is currently running at 1162.2. A break above this level is a good start, and if the price actually breaks above it, we could very much see a test of at least one of the micro term retracements which start at 1165.4, and include 1171.3, 1178.6, 1185.9 & 1191.8. Testing at least one of these levels will become highly expected if the price breaks above 1163.9, but breaking all of them is not probable at the moment. However, if the bulls can come back to life & break above all of these levels, then trading above March 5th short term top (1209.5) should be expected. Good Luck Guys..

BUYING AND SELLING INDICATIONS IN GBPUSD (CABLE) 16/03/15

Buy 1.4754
Stop 1.4677
Target / Limit 1.4933

Sell 1.4677
Stop 1.4754
Target / Limit 1.4514

OVERALL TRENDLINE IN GBPUSD (CABLE) 16/03/15

• Short term: Down, as long as we are below 1.4933.
• Medium term: Down, as long as we are below 1.5308.
• Long term: Down, as long as we are below 1.7191.

RESISTANCE TRENDLINE IN GBPUSD (CABLE) 16/03/15

• 1.4788: the highest price seen after reaching Friday’s 5-year low.
• 1.4824: micro term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level for the drop from Tuesday’s high 1.5026 to Friday’s 5-year low 1.4699.
• 1.4863: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement level for the drop from Tuesday’s high 1.5026 to Friday’s 5-year low 1.4699.
• 1.4901: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level for the drop from Tuesday’s high 1.5026 to Friday’s 5-year low 1.4699.
• 1.4933: micro term 71.4% retracement level for the drop from Tuesday’s high 1.5026 to Friday’s 5-year low 1.4699.
• 1.4979: micro term 85.7% retracement level for the drop from Tuesday’s high 1.5026 to Friday’s 5-year low 1.4699.
• 1.5025: short term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level for the drop from Feb 26th Fibonacci top 1.5552 to Friday’s 5-year low 1.4699.
• 1.5065: short term 42.9% retracement level for the drop from Feb 26th Fibonacci top 1.5552 to Friday’s 5-year low 1.4699.
• 1.5126: short term Fibonacci 50% retracement level for the drop from Feb 26th Fibonacci top 1.5552 to Friday’s 5-year low 1.4699.

SUPPORT TRENDLINE IN GBPUSD (CABLE) 16/03/15

• 1.4754: an important support which combines the bottom of the intraday channel which can be drawn using Friday’s low, and the intraday tops which followed, with the micro term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, calculated for the recovery from Friday’s 5-year low 1.4699 to today’s current high 1.4788.
• 1.4744: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement, for the recovery from Friday’s 5-year low 1.4699 to today’s current high 1.4788.
• 1.4733: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, for the recovery from Friday’s 5-year low 1.4699 to today’s current high 1.4788.
• 1.4724: micro term 71.4% retracement, for the recovery from Friday’s 5-year low 1.4699 to today’s current high 1.4788.
• 1.4712: an important support which combines an important intraday bottom from Friday, with the micro term 85.7% retracement, calculated for the recovery from Friday’s 5-year low 1.4699 to today’s current high 1.4788.
• 1.4686: a weekly low from June 2010.
• 1.4611: a weekly high from May 2010.
• 1.4569: a weekly low from June 2010.
• 1.4514: a weekly low from May 2009.

GBPUSD (CABLE) LATEST SCENARIO 16/03/15

For Telegram group for buying or selling cable,since last week the Cable got hammered again especially on Friday, reaching a 5-year low at 1.4655 (4 years & 9 months to be exact), which is the lowest price since June 2010. The break below the support area 1.4813/31 (the red horizontal line on the attached chart) seems to be serious, and a look on the weekly chart shows that it could have opened the way lower to one of 2 potential targets at 1.4346 & 1.3809 as I always remind you guys for 145/140 in this pair.

If we draw a line connecting the tops seen in August 2009 & July 2014, and take the parallel line to it, and place it at May 2010 bottom, the resulting line will be running very close to June 2010 monthly low 1.4346. If we take the parallel line, and place it at January 2009 major bottom, the resulting line will be running very close to February 2009 monthly low 1.3809. These levels may look far now, but they are decent potential targets for this important break.

Having said that, one cannot ignore the fact that the weekly RSI did not confirm the new bottom (please refer to the attached chart). While the price dipped to a level not seen in almost 5 years, RSI held above its most recent bottom (seen in January), to create what surely looks like a bullish divergence between the price & RSI. This does not support the case for a strong drop, on the contrary, it supports the possibility that we have seen, or about to see, a major bottom around current levels! When talking about the long term analysis, we need to keep an open mind to both possibilities, and search for other clues from short & medium term analysis, in order to help us estimate which possibility is the more probable one.

Let’s switch to shorter term analysis now. The rising recovery from Friday’s multi-year low has left behind a few important micro term levels, such as 1.4754, 1.4744, 1.4733 & 1.4742, but the most important level in my opinion is 1.4712/18. As long as 1.4712/18 holds, the possibility for a stronger recovery will continue to be. But even if we do not test 1.4712/18, we can still say that a bottom very close to any of these levels will be a positive sign. In the unlikely event of breaking below 1.4712, the Cable will be expected to continue moving south, targeting 1.4686 first, ahead of 1.4611, 1.4569 & 1.4514. These levels are all weekly extremes (highs or lows) which have been seen years ago, and they do not hold more technical significance that that, unlike 1.4346 & 1.3809 which, as explained earlier, have much more technical value.

On the resistance side, the highest price this recovery managed to reach was 1.4788 & this will be our first resistance. A break above this level will open the way towards the micro term retracement levels, which start at 1.4824, and include 1.4863 as an ideal target, followed by 2 key levels at 1.4901 & 1.4933. A break above this last level in specific will be a reason to believe that the price could very much trade above Thursday’s high 1.5019, and in this case 1.5025, 1.5065 & 1.5126 all make good targets.

BUYING AND SELLING INDICATIONS IN EURUSD (FIBER) 16/03/15

Buy 1.0502
Stop 1.0425
Target / Limit 1.0678

Sell 1.0425
Stop 1.0502
Target / Limit 1.0225

OVERALL TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 16/03/15

• Short term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.0565.
• Medium term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.1124.
• Long term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.2985.

RESISTANCE TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 16/03/15

• 1.0565: the falling trend line from Thursday’s high.
• 1.0599: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement calculated for the falling move from Thursday’s high 1.0684 to Friday’s 12-year low 1.0462.
• 1.0621: micro term 71.4% retracement calculated for the falling move from Thursday’s high 1.0684 to Friday’s 12-year low 1.0462.
• 1.0678: short term 28.6% retracement calculated for the falling move from Mar 3rd daily high 1.1217 to Friday’s 12-year low 1.0462.
• 1.0713: short term Dow 33.3% retracement calculated for the falling move from Mar 3rd daily high 1.1217 to Friday’s 12-year low 1.0462.
• 1.0750: short term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement calculated for the falling move from Mar 3rd daily high 1.1217 to Friday’s 12-year low 1.0462.
• 1.0786: short term 42.9% retracement calculated for the falling move from Mar 3rd daily high 1.1217 to Friday’s 12-year low 1.0462.
• 1.0840: short term Fibonacci 50% retracement calculated for the falling move from Mar 3rd daily high 1.1217 to Friday’s 12-year low 1.0462.

SUPPORT TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 16/03/15

• 1.0515: the rising trend line from Friday’s 12-year low.
• 1.0487/95: the micro term Fibonacci 61.8% & 71.4% area calculated for the recovery from Friday’s 12-year low 1.0462 to today’s current high 1.0549.
• 1.0462: Friday’s 12-year low.
• 1.0454: the cyclical 71.4% retracement level, calculated for the enormous move from October 2000 all-time low 0.8220 to July 2008 all-time high 1.6038.
• 1.0419: a weekly close from Dec 2002.
• 1.0359: a weekly low from Jan 2003.
• 1.0333: a weekly high & a weekly low from Dec 2002 (the same down to the pip).

EURUSD (FIBER) LATEST SCENARIO 16/03/15

Hi my dear friends here, recently the Euro dipped to a new 12-year low on Friday at 1.0462, which is only 7 pips above our long term 71.4% retracement level. As far as I remember, I have talked about this level several times, and bottoming only 7 pips above it indicate its importance. Therefore, this level will be in the center of my today’ analysis.

Late last week, the price broke above the top of the falling channel from the ECB top, but the reaction was limited, and the price was back to retest this channel (please refer to chart #1). This behavior is a yet another indication of a probable bottom in the area, because retesting the top of a channel which was broken to the upside is bullish. The fact that the retest level included reaching a new bottom does not change that at all. However, it is obvious that we are facing a very strong downtrend, and we should not get very excited about bullish breaks unless they show enough strength to convince us that they mean business.

As said in all of last week’s analysis, the next long term target is 1.0454. Take a look at attached chart #2, you will see that the falling trend line connecting October 2008 & June 2010 major bottoms (the red trend line on the attached chart), is currently running very close to 1.0454! I guess we can test this important level in the near future in order to get more clues on the long term direction of the single currency.

As for the short term analysis, the first resistance is provided by the falling trend line from Thursday’s high, which is currently running around 1.0565. A break above this level, especially if it comes with the trend low as close as possible to 1.0454 would be a good bullish sign (Friday’s low 1.0462 is surely close enough to 1.0454). If we break above this level, the euro will be expected to recover targeting 2 micro term retracements at 1.0599 & 1.0621. Here is where the bulls are invited to prove their strength. If we top very close to either of those levels, the recovery could be over. But breaking above these levels would be another positive sign, may be an extremely positive sign. The targets for breaking 1.0621 include 1.0678, 1.0713 & 1.0750, among other levels.

First support is provided by the rising trend line from Friday’s 12-year low, which is currently running at 1.0515. As long as this level holds the Euro has a chance to stretch this recovery higher, but if the price breaks below it, that chance gets thinner & thinner. A break below this level would make reaching a new 12-year low highly probable. In this case we need to keep both our eyes at the price as it approached 1.0454. This level could be the reason why this sharp drop is not stopping, it may be the awaited target & turning point, after 1.1096 failed to be. Testing 1.0454 should provide us with info about the direction of the next big move, and it is simple: a bottom very close to this level is a reason to expect a strong rising move, while a clear & clean break below it is a reason for this trend to go lower & lower. A break below this level will be expected to target 1.0419, 1.0359 ahead of what looks like an important level at 1.0333. So better careful Kevin, Nader, Adnan, Tiger, Amanda, Fipsie, Diego, Delcios and others..Happy trading..

BUYING AND SELLING INDICATIONS IN EURUSD (FIBER) 09/03/15

1st Option

Buy 1.0826
Stop 1.0742
Target / Limit 1.0888

Sell 1.0888
Stop 1.0978
Target / Limit 1.0826

2nd Option

Buy 1.0978
Stop 1.0904
Target / Limit 1.1114

RESISTANCE TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 09/03/15

• 1.0888: an important level which combines the highest price seen after the payrolls number, with the falling trend line from Thursday’s high, and the bottom of the falling channel which can be drawn using the daily highs for Tuesday & Thursday of last week (the red channel on attached chart #2).
• 1.0930: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement calculated for the falling move from Thursday’s ECB-top 1.1114 to today’s 12-year low & potential Dow bottom 1.0817.
• 1.0966: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement calculated for the falling move from Thursday’s ECB-top 1.1114 to today’s 12-year low & potential Dow bottom 1.0817.
• 1.1001: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement calculated for the falling move from Thursday’s ECB-top 1.1114 to today’s 12-year low & potential Dow bottom 1.0817.
• 1.1029: micro term 71.4% retracement calculated for the falling move from Thursday’s ECB-top 1.1114 to today’s 12-year low & potential Dow bottom 1.0817.
• 1.1072: micro term 71.4% retracement calculated for the falling move from Thursday’s ECB-top 1.1114 to today’s 12-year low & potential Dow bottom 1.0817.
• 1.1114: Thursday’s ECB-top.

RESISTANCE TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 09/03/15

• 1.0826: the cyclical Dow 66.7% retracement level, calculated for the enormous move from October 2000 all-time low 0.8220 to July 2008 all-time high 1.6038. This level was tested when the markets reopened for the new week, as the price dipped to a 12-year low only 9 pips below it.
• 1.0792: a weekly low from Aug 2003.
• 1.0761: Aug 2003 major bottom.
• 1.0717: a weekly low from Apr 2003.
• 1.0683: a weekly low from Mar 2003.
• 1.0665: a weekly low from Feb 2003.
• 1.0560/5: a support/resistance area which includes 2 weekly lows seen in Mar & Apr 2003.
• 1.0454: the cyclical 71.4% retracement level, calculated for the enormous move from October 2000 all-time low 0.8220 to July 2008 all-time high 1.6038.

EURUSD (FIBER) LATEST SCENARIO 09/03/15

Hi everyone, good day and the market reopened for the new week as per many traders expected, the Euro dropped and reached the long term Dow 66.7% at 1.0826. As said in last week’s reports, the double break below 2 important levels at 1.1159 & 1.1096 was strongly bearish. The target for this double break was 1.0826, and the Euro took very little time to reach it. Today’s current daily low, which is a 12-year low (it is the lowest price seen in 11 years & 7 months to be exact), is only 9 pips below this Dow level. The question now, as is it always the case when the price bottoms pips away from important levels is: Can the Euro bulls, who were slaughtered last week, come back to create bullish momentum after reaching this level?

The accuracy is very exciting, but we have learnt from the strength of this downtrend, that accuracy by itself is not enough. We need to see more evidence of a bullish attempt before we jump on the bullish wagon.

First resistance is at 1.0888. This level combines the highest price seen after the payrolls number, with the falling trend line from Thursday’s high, and the bottom of the falling channel which can be drawn using the daily highs for Tuesday & Thursday of last week . This looks like a strong area, and any recovery attempts that fail to break above it will be short-lived. If, however, the price breaks 1.0888, a recovery would be already underway. The targets for this recovery include micro term levels like 1.0930, 1.0966 (Important), 1.1001 & 1.1029. These are all retracement levels calculated for the drop from Thursday’s ECB-top 1.1114 to today’s 12-year low & probable Dow bottom 1.0817.

It is unlikely at the moment that a recovery can push past 1.1029, and reaching 1.1001 or 1.1029 again would probably provide the eager bears with another chance to go short again for the medium term. However, in case the price breaks above 1.1029, this means that it will be ready for the important test of 1.1114.

On the support side, the area 1.0826 to 1.0817 comes first. A break below this area indicates that the downtrend is still strong and hungry. The first target for breaking this area is 1.0792 followed by a more reasonable target at 1.0761, followed by 1.0717 & 1.0683. However, the next long term retracement level is not until 1.0454. One more thing I'm still travelling right now. Thanks Guys...

NOTE

NO BUYING AND SELLING INDICATIONS ON FRIDAY ESPECIALLY FOR NFP..SO TAKE CARE BECAUSE MY CLOUDS READING CANNOT TRACE THE SPIKE OR ROLLING STONES LEVEL IN AGGRESSIVE LIQUIDITY. HAPPY TRADING GUYS.

OVERALL TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 06/03/15

• Short term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.1052.
• Medium term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.1340.
• Long term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.3135.

RESISTANCE TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 06/03/15

• 1.1052: the falling trend line from Tuesday’s high.
• 1.1075: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement calculated for the falling move from Tuesday’s high 1.1217 to yesterday's 11-year low 1.0987.
• 1.1102: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement calculated for the falling move from Tuesday’s high 1.1217 to yesterday's 11-year low 1.0987.
• 1.1129: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement calculated for the falling move from Tuesday’s high 1.1217 to yesterday's 11-year low 1.0987.
• 1.1151: micro term 71.4% retracement calculated for the falling move from Tuesday’s high 1.1217 to yesterday's 11-year low 1.0987.
• 1.1184: micro term 85.7% retracement calculated for the falling move from Tuesday’s high 1.1217 to yesterday's 11-year low 1.0987.
• 1.1217: Tuesday’s high.
• 1.1245: Feb 27th high.
• 1.1279: Feb 20th low.

SUPPORT TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 06/03/15

• 1.0987: yesterday's 11-year low.
• 1.0935: a weekly high from Feb 2003.
• 1.0906: a weekly high from Jan 2003.
• 1.0864: a weekly high from Jan 2003.
• 1.0826: the cyclical Dow 66.7% retracement level, calculated for the enormous move from October 2000 all-time low 0.8220 to July 2008 all-time high 1.6038.
• 1.0792: a weekly low from Aug 2003.
• 1.0761: a weekly low from Aug 2003.
• 1.0454: the cyclical 71.4% retracement level, calculated for the enormous move from October 2000 all-time low 0.8220 to July 2008 all-time high 1.6038.

EURUSD (FIBER) AFTER BREAKOUT 1.10000 SCENARIO 06/03/15

My dear friends no surprises here for me as I already expected through my math calculation in permutation concept about previous and recent numbers involved by Algorithm concept. The Euro broke 2 very important support levels on Wednesday, and proved that our anticipation of a bottom around 1.1159 was wrong. Breaking below 1.1159 was a warning sign, while breaking below 1.1096 was a confirmation that the price is going to move lower & lower. The price has reached yet another 11-year low at 1.0987 yesterday, and it is expected to continue moving south.

The price is now expected to target 1.0935 & 1.0864 after broke 1.10000 yesterday, ahead of a long term Dow level at 1.0826. The Dow level may look a bit far now, but remember that we had a strong & very important bearish break on Wednesday, when we had the double break of 1.1159 & 1.1096. Taking the importance of this break into account suggests that the bears could very much pull the Euro lower to these levels on the short term, and even lower on the medium term, may be to test the long term 71.4% retracement at 1.0454. Breaking 1.1096 opened the door to all these possibilities especially towards to 1.05000 & 1.00072 lvl before Christmas dawn or coming new year!

On the other hand, first resistance is provided by the falling trend line from Tuesday’s high, which is currently running at 1.1052. Any recovery attempts which fail to break above this level should not be taken seriously, on the contrary, they could provide shorting opportunities. However, if the price can recover past 1.1052, it will be expected to start rising higher, targeting the micro term retracements at 1.1075, 1.1102, 1.1129 & 1.1151. The last 2 levels look hard to break, but if the Euro can do it & break above 1.1151, we could be on the way towards 1.1245 in a well-deserved rising correction after these losses.

Please keep in mind that we have the U.S. Ministry of Labor monthly report due today at 8:30 ET. This report is capable of moving the market sharply in either direction, caution is advised for Telegram group..in NFP trade later. Happy set up your trap Ad & Gangs.

BUYING AND SELLING INDICATION IN EURUSD (FIBER) 05/03/15

Buy 1.1058
Stop 1.0979
Target / Limit 1.1258

Sell 1.0979
Stop 1.1058
Target / Limit 1.0779

PLEASE BE CAREFUL ABOUT WHIPSAW, SPIKE UP OR BEARISH - ROLLING STONES IN CHART TODAY FROM DRAGHI MOUTH ESPECIALLY ABOUT QE. HAPPY HUNTING PIPS..

OVERALL TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 05/03/15

• Short term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.1099.
• Medium term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.1346.
• Long term: Down, as long as the price is below 1.3146.

RESISTANCE TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 05/03/15

• 1.1099: first important resistance which combines the falling trend line from Tuesday’s high, with the micro term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement calculated for the falling move from Tuesday’s high 1.1217 to today’s current low 1.1026.
• 1.1122: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement calculated for the falling move from Tuesday’s high 1.1217 to today’s current low 1.1026.
• 1.1144: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement calculated for the falling move from Tuesday’s high 1.1217 to today’s current low 1.1026.
• 1.1162: micro term 71.4% retracement calculated for the falling move from Tuesday’s high 1.1217 to today’s current low 1.1026.
• 1.1190: micro term 85.7% retracement calculated for the falling move from Tuesday’s high 1.1217 to today’s current low 1.1026.
• 1.1217: Tuesday’s high.
• 1.1245: Feb 27th high.
• 1.1279: Feb 20th low.

SUPPORT TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 05/03/15

• 1.1026: today's current daily low.
• 1.0998: a weekly high from Aug 2003.
• 1.0935: a weekly high from Feb 2003.
• 1.0906: a weekly high from Jan 2003.
• 1.0864: a weekly high from Jan 2003.
• 1.0826: the cyclical Dow 66.7% retracement level, calculated for the enormous move from October 2000 all-time low 0.8220 to July 2008 all-time high 1.6038.
• 1.0792: a weekly low from Aug 2003.
• 1.0761: a weekly low from Aug 2003.
• 1.0454: the cyclical 71.4% retracement level, calculated for the enormous move from October 2000 all-time low 0.8220 to July 2008 all-time high 1.6038.

SUPPORT TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 05/03/15

• 1.1026: today's current daily low.
• 1.0998: a weekly high from Aug 2003.
• 1.0935: a weekly high from Feb 2003.
• 1.0906: a weekly high from Jan 2003.
• 1.0864: a weekly high from Jan 2003.
• 1.0826: the cyclical Dow 66.7% retracement level, calculated for the enormous move from October 2000 all-time low 0.8220 to July 2008 all-time high 1.6038.
• 1.0792: a weekly low from Aug 2003.
• 1.0761: a weekly low from Aug 2003.
• 1.0454: the cyclical 71.4% retracement level, calculated for the enormous move from October 2000 all-time low 0.8220 to July 2008 all-time high 1.6038.

EURUSD (FIBER) LATEST SCENARIO 05/03/15

Hello Bears Club from fxbeat, the Euro broke 2 very important support levels yesterday, and proved that a few anticipation of our members in group about bottom around 1.1159/60/80 was totally wrong. Breaking below 1.1159 was a warning sign, while breaking below 1.1096 was a confirmation that the price is going to move lower & lower. The price has reached a fresh 11-year low at 1.1026 earlier today, and it is expected to continue moving south probably in Cyprus meeting by ECB today.

The price is now expected to target 1.0998, and 1.0935, ahead of a long term Dow level at 1.0826. These levels may look a bit far now, but remember that we had a strong & very important bearish break yesterday (remember Del, Kevin and others- trust my numbers in calculation), when we had the double break of 1.1159 & 1.1096. taking the importance of this break into account suggests that the bears could very much pull the Euro lower to these levels on the short term, and even lower on the medium term, may be to test the long term 71.4% retracement at 1.0454. Breaking 1.1096 opened the door to all these possibilities!

On the other hand, first resistance is provided by the falling trend line from Tuesday’s high, which is currently running very close to the micro term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement at 1.1099. Any recovery attempts which fail to break above this level should not be taken seriously, on the contrary, they could provide shorting opportunities. However, if the price can recover past 1.1099, it will be expected to start rising higher, targeting other micro term retracements at 1.1122, 1.1144 & 1.1162. The last 2 levels look hard to break, but if the Euro can do it & break above 1.1162, we could be on the way towards 1.1245. Happy trading guys.. sorry I did not provide any chart today because too busy and also for managed account I will discuss and finalized with Diego this coming Thursday so we can start from next week or mid March - this month)

BUYING AND SELLING INDICATION IN EURUSD (FIBER) 03/03/15

1st Option

Buy 1.1226
Stop 1.1141
Target / Limit 1.1426

2nd Option

Buy 1.1161
Stop 1.1078
Target / Limit 1.1361

Sell 1.1078
Stop 1.1152
Target / Limit 1.0878

OVERALL TRENDLINE IN EURUSD(FIBER) 03/03/15

• Short term: Up, as long as the price is above 1.1096.
• Medium term: Up, as long as the price is above 1.1096.
• Long term: Up, as long as the price is above 1.1096.

RESISTANCE TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 03/03/15

• 1.1247: micro term Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, calculated for the drop from Wednesday’s high 1.1389 to yesterday's 1-month low & probable bottom 1.1160. This level is 2 pips above Friday’s high & 7 above Monday's high.
• 1.1275: micro term Fibonacci 50% retracement, calculated for the drop from Wednesday’s high 1.1389 to yesterday's 1-month low & probable bottom 1.1160.
• 1.1302: micro term Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, calculated for the drop from Wednesday’s high 1.1389 to yesterday's 1-month low & probable bottom 1.1160.
• 1.1324: micro term 71.4% retracement, calculated for the drop from Wednesday’s high 1.1389 to yesterday's 1-month low & probable bottom 1.1160. This level is also very close to the falling trend line from Feb 19th top, which adds to its importance.
• 1.1356: micro term 85.7% retracement, calculated for the drop from Wednesday’s high 1.1389 to yesterday's 1-month low & probable bottom 1.1160.
• 1.1389: Wednesday’s high, which is also very close to the falling trend line from Feb 3rd top, which is the top of a very elegant 4-hour channel (illustrated on the attached chart).
• 1.1450: Feb 19th daily high.
• 1.1499: Feb 5th daily high.
• 1.1534: Feb 3rd 13-day high.
• 1.1567: Jan 15th daily low.
• 1.1596: 85.7% retracement level, calculated for the falling move from Jan 21st high 1.1679 to Jan 26th 11-year low & probable termination point of wave (c) 1.1097.
• 1.1639: Jan 19th daily high
• 1.1679: Jan 21st daily high.
• 1.1727: Jan 14th low.

SUPPORT TRENDLINE IN EURUSD (FIBER) 03/03/15

• 1.1159: 85.7% retracement level, calculated for the recovery from Jan 26th 11-year low & probable termination point of wave (c) 1.1097 to Feb 3rd 13-day high 1.1534. This level was tested with excellent accuracy when the market opened this week, as it reached a 1-month low one single pip above it!
• 1.1096: the equality target, where wave (c) of the supposed second three, equals wave (a) of the same pattern. This level was tested with unbelievable accuracy when the market opened this week, as the price bottomed at an 11-year low one single pip above it, before rising more than 430 pips!
• 1.1046: a weekly low from Sep 2003.
• 1.0998: a weekly high from Aug 2003.
• 1.0935: a weekly high from Feb 2003.
• 1.0826: the cyclical Dow 66.7% retracement level, calculated for the enormous move from October 2000 all-time low 0.8220 to July 2008 all-time high 1.6038.
• 1.0792: a weekly low from Aug 2003.
• 1.0761: a weekly low from Aug 2003.
• 1.0454: the cyclical 71.4% retracement level, calculated for the enormous move from October 2000 all-time low 0.8220 to July 2008 all-time high 1.6038.

EURUSD (FIBER LATEST SCENARIO) 03/03/15

Yesterday’s my laptop was troubled and I focused on the importance of 1.1159 as , as a strong support which was expected to hold but nothing much I can do in that situation for my trading and analysis too. The daily low which was already reached when my analysis came out at 1.1161, continued to be the daily low for the whole day, and now we could say that we have an interesting (if not important) bottom at yesterday’s low 1.1160. This low is one single pip above 85.7% short term retracement. This proves that this is an important support. As usual, accurate stops on retracements levels (Fibonacci) are alerts that the price could switch direction. In this case, bottoming accurately at 1.1159 means there is a chance that the Euro is going to switch direction, from downtrend to uptrend, at least for the short term. Another sign of this happening is that the price did reach the bottom of the falling 4-hour channel that can be seen on the attached chart. However, the reaction so far is not very strong, and this is a sign that we need to be careful.

If the price is to start recovering we need to see it breaking above an important resistance, before we get overexcited. First resistance is provided by the micro term Fibonacci 38.2% level at 1.1247, which is also very close to Friday’s & Monday’s daily highs, which were 1.1245 & 1.1240 respectively. A break above this level would be a good start, especially if it comes while yesterday’s low is not broken. However, even if the price breaks above this level, it will need to prove strength against other levels at 1.1275, 1.1302 & the important 1.1324. Above here things will become much better for the bulls, and the price will be expected to target the very important 1.1389. A break above this level will be fantastic for the short term bulls, as it will probably result in rising move that will be expected to target 1.1450 & 1.1499 first, with an eventual target of trading above the highest price seen in the past 5 weeks, 1.1534.

On the other hand, if 1.1159 gives way, we need to admit that some kind of damage will happen to our long-term bullish scenario, but this scenario will not be void unless we break below the 11-year low 1.1097. In this case, potential targets for include 1.1046, 1.0998, and 1.0935 & an important long term Dow level at 1.0826. Happy Trading guys..